DCM Advisors Blog

  • How much is global GDP growth slowing down in 2019?

    How much is global GDP growth slowing down in 2019?
    By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, August 27, 2019

    Below are charts which contrast average consensus GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 for the developed markets and the emerging markets. GDP 2018 forecasts were revised upward during 2017 and stabilized in mid-2018 for both developed and emerging markets.Read More »
  • Global Earnings Forecast Revisions

    Global Earnings Forecast Revisions
    By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, July 23, 2019

    With 2Q earnings season underway in the U.S., the question arises as to what effect trade and the global slowdown are having on 3Q19 earnings. Below are charts of 1-month upward company revisions (defined as number of companies with upward revisions divided by the total number of companies with upward and downward revisions) for the U.S.,Read More »
  • Global Bull Markets and Earnings Growth

    Global Bull Markets and Earnings Growth
    By Dr. Leila Heckman, PhD, July 8, 2019

    As the current bull market is now 93 months long (since 1970, the average bull market has lasted 56 months), the question naturally arises whether a market correction is due. Putting this question in perspective, since 1970,Read More »
  • Tale of Emerging Market Currencies 2018 and 2019

    Tale of Emerging Market Currencies 2018 and 2019
    By Dr. Leila Heckman June 24, 2019

    Last year, much commentary was on Emerging Market equity and currency declines. The Federal Reserve raised rates four times in 2018.  A stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for Emerging Market companies and sovereigns.Read More »
  • Global Equity Allocation during Episodes of Fed Tightening

    Global Equity Allocation during Episodes of Fed Tightening
    By Dr. John Mullin, March 22, 2019

    Our most recent research note examines the efficacy of various investment indicators during episodes of Fed tightening. Focusing on the last four episodes, we find that the record is mixed. Most investment indicators performed well during the tightening episodes of 1999 and 2004-2007,Read More »