Below are charts which contrast average consensus GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 for the developed markets and the emerging markets. GDP 2018 forecasts were revised upward during 2017 and stabilized in mid-2018 for both developed and emerging markets.Read More »
With 2Q earnings season underway in the U.S., the question arises as to what
effect trade and the global slowdown are having on 3Q19 earnings.
Below are charts of 1-month upward company revisions (defined as number of companies with upward revisions divided by the total number of companies with upward and downward revisions) for the U.S.,Read More »
As the current bull market is now 93 months long (since 1970, the
average bull market has lasted 56 months), the question naturally arises whether
a market correction is due.
Putting this question in perspective, since 1970,Read More »
Last year, much commentary was on Emerging Market equity and currency declines. The Federal Reserve raised rates four times in 2018. A stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for Emerging Market companies and sovereigns.Read More »
Our most recent research note examines the efficacy of various investment indicators during episodes of Fed tightening. Focusing on the last four episodes, we find that the record is mixed. Most investment indicators performed well during the tightening episodes of 1999 and 2004-2007,Read More »
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