DCM Advisors Blog

  • Global Commodity Price Trends Favor Emerging Asia

    Global Commodity Price Trends Favor Emerging Asia
    by Dr. John Mullin, January 28, 2019

    Recent global commodity price weakness has favored several emerging Asian markets at the expense of commodity exporters in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. After peaking in early 2018, global metals prices declined during the second half of the year.Read More »
  • Inflation and Asset Allocation in the U.S. since 1955

    Inflation and Asset Allocation in the U.S. since 1955
    by Dr. John Mullin, December 19, 2018

    Our recently published white paper—Inflation and Asset Allocation in the U.S. since 1995—draws lessons for U.S. asset allocation based on the full range of U.S. inflationary experience during the post-WWII period. The paper focuses on the real returns to U.S.Read More »
  • Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern

    Recent Chinese Reserve Declines: No Cause for Immediate Concern
    by Dr. John Mullin, November 12, 2018

    China’s FX Reserves declined by US$ 34 billion in October, bringing this year’s cumulative loss to US$ 87 billion. There are at least two reasons to take this development in stride: The US$ 87 billion decline amounts to a modest 2.8% of initial December 2017 reserves (US$ 3,140 billion).Read More »
  • Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises

    Emerging Markets: Less Reliant on External Financing than Before Past Crises
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 23, 2018

    This year’s emerging market sell-off has raised the long-standing issue of contagion—the tendency for credit problems in a small set of emerging markets to spill over into a broader credit crunch, often with dire implications for economic fundamentals.Read More »
  • Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle

    Recent EM Volatility: It’s the Global Credit Cycle
    by Dr. John Mullin, October 18, 2018

    Much commentary on recent EM equity declines has focused on the role of U.S. dollar strength. This makes sense for at least a couple of reasons. From a fundamental standpoint, a stronger dollar increases the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt for EM companies and sovereigns.Read More »